Lebanon

 President Michel Suleiman will make his first visit to Damascus next week for talks with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad. The two neighbors would discuss establishing diplomatic ties, an official said on Tuesday. “The summit will be held on August 13,” an official from Baabda Palace told AFP. Relations have been tense since Syria pulled out its troops from Lebanon in 2005 in the aftermath of the assassination of Lebanese former premier Rafik Hariri, ending a three-decade military presence

If Sleiman manages to have his voice heard over the border issue and the problem of the Lebanese kept to rot in Syrian jails, the trip will not be useless. On the other hand, let’s not forget that Sleiman made a career under the Syrian occupation. They would not have appointed him head of the army, had he challenged them in any way.

Furthermore, he was elected as a so-called compromise President, but now that he is in the position of actually doing some good, he should go ahead with or without the green light from all parties/sects etc.  If Sleiman waits for Lebanese political leadership as a whole to support everything he does, he will end up doing nothing.

Sleiman can change the situation for the better. Is he willing and capable of doing that?Depends. The general should understand that his main objective is to protect the interests of the Lebanese full stop.  However, if he goes to Syria with the mentality of an employee and not that of a leader the visit is a waste of time.

Premier Fouad Saniora’s cabinet on Monday adopted its policy statement despite reservations voiced by four ministers on a clause related to the resistance. Information Minister Tareq Mitri said the statement was adopted unanimously to safeguard “ministerial solidarity.” [Naharnet]

The four ministers that had reservations were Nassib Lahoud, Tony Karam, Ibrahim Najjar and Elie Marouni.

Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel criticized the “ambiguous” reference to Hizbullah’s resistance in the new cabinet’s policy statement draft. Gemayel […] said such phrasing leads to “duality of concepts between the resistance and the state.”

In other news, MP Hamade said that at the next year elections people will have to choose between “the state and Hizballah’s mini state. “

  Now that the policy has been agreed upon [at least in principle] the government should start doing its job.

I wonder if someone will fix the electricity anytime soon. In Beirut, we have no electricity for three hours / day. I don’t want to be trapped inside the elevator when the lights go off, thus, I have to check daily the electricity schedule. Outside Beirut there is no power for nine hours a day. That’s what I have been told, but I am about to learn it soon from personal experience.

I took a stroll today in downtown Beirut. The tents were dismantled, summer season is on and the place looks wonderful. The shops, restaurants and cafes that were once deserted are now back in business.

The political tension won’t go away anytime soon. However, Lebanese people have an interesting way of dealing with trouble. They just go on with life. Sometimes that works well, other times it does not.  For now, it feels good to be in Lebanon.

Those who have met Samir Geagea talk of a clever strategist, that has a vision not only for the Christian community, but for the country as a whole. Geagea and Aoun are rivals within the Christian community, and as such, Geagea will continue to attack the unholy alliance between Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and Hizballah. I am not going to talk about this alliance anymore. It is there, thus far is working and politics is not about morals.

That being said, I do hope that Aoun understands that in spite of Hizballah’s media and PR stunts [and they are good], their fantastic social programs and skillful political rhetoric, the reality is that the party follows the Vilayet e Fagiq ideology that has nothing to do with national pride or with Lebanon. In the end, it is plausible to say, that in politics, today’s friend can be tomorrow’s enemy and vice versa.

Interview conducted by al-Osbou al-Arabi Magazine [Arab Week] with the leader of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea:

Do you think that Hezbollah’s weapons represent a balance with Israel in a way that forces Israel to change its plans and strategies? What would save us from the naturalization project is our relations with Western countries, namely the United States, as they can help us by applying pressures to prevent naturalization from taking place in Lebanon…

Israel will not change its strategy vis-à-vis the issue of naturalization because of Hezbollah’s weapons. Besides, this weapon is within the hands of one Lebanese group and sect, and its mere existence overshadows and discomforts other sects, namely the Christians. Also, these weapons were regrettably used internally in May and Hezbollah resorts to its weapons when it is politically weak…

On Syrian -Lebanese relationship and the Christian community.

Our utmost wish as Lebanese Forces is to have serious and real relations between Lebanon and Syria. But what we have suffered over the past 25 years was very painful to us and all Lebanese factions. They imprisoned me, while they killed Rafiq Hariri. Any serious and normal relations require the recognition of these painful years. We expected Al-Assad to say that the Lebanese people have suffered due to the behavior of the Syrian regime and its intelligence apparatuses and that we want to open a new page, but he did not…

Syria should stop meddling in Lebanese affairs by ceasing the transfer of weapons to certain Lebanese factions. It should also stop sending weapons and militants to Palestinian groups outside the camps, especially the groups located on the Lebanese-Syrian border.

Question: “Don’t you think that the Christian community is of no importance in light of the conflicts between its forces?

Answer: “Yes, it has become beneath consideration because part of it moved to the other camp [in reference to Deputy Michel Aoun and his alliance with Hezbollah]…” [mideastwire.com translation]

The international tribunal that will try the suspected assassins of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri is set to begin its work by the beginning of next year, a source at the U.N. told As-Safir on Thursday.

The source, who is close to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, said the U.N. chief “has pledged clearly that progress will continue towards establishing the tribunal,” regardless of the latest political developments in Lebanon with respect to the election of a new president and the formation of a new government.

The U.N. source said that Ban preferred not to announce the names of the Lebanese and international judges until the end of the year, in order to reduce expenses and also to protect their lives. He added that as soon as the judges’ names are announced, they will be transported to The Hague and placed under guard.

You can read more here.

Hizballah has a new department for Arab relations run by Sheikh Hassan Ezzedin. In an interview with al Rai al Aam [Kuwait] he explained why the need for this department and what’s the objective.

 …Q: Hezbollah introduced changes to its organizational structure and created an Arab relations position. Does this have anything to do with the shortcomings that emerged following the July war?

A: It has nothing to do with the July war but is rather related to the overall developments and changes witnessed lately, especially after the Radwan prisoners’ swap operation. Usually in Hezbollah, we hold organizational sessions every three years to discuss what happened during the past three years. We thus assess the different organizational and political issues.

Q: “What will be the main task?

A: “To give momentum to and activate Arab relations and the Arab dossier, considering that the Arabs enjoy an official and popular strategic depth at the level of the main cause, that of Palestine.

Q: “Does this have anything to do with Hezbollah’s attempt to improve its image in the Arab world following the Beirut May events?

A: “Not at all. However, we will certainly exert efforts in this direction to convey the right image of the resistance, especially in the face of the attempts to ruin its image… Our other goal is to contribute, as much as possible, to the alleviation of sectarian tensions,such as those currently seen in Iraq.

Q: “We have never seen a Hezbollah delegation visiting an Arab state like the other parties and forces. Was this position created to handle the shortcoming at this level and to fill an existing void?

A: “There is no shortcoming, just a matter of political circumstances, knowing that Hezbollah always gave attention to this issue. Today, it wants to build a more influential network of relations to exploit the credibility it enjoys among the people in the Arab world. By doing so, it will play a more positive and influential role at the level of unifying the energies and removing the weaknesses that are distancing the Arab populations.

Q: “So will we see Hezbollah delegations visiting Arab countries in the coming days?

A: Certainly. There will be a program to activate what you previously mentioned and we will certainly conduct visits to Arab countries. In two days (today) I will visit Egypt to partake in a festival organized by the Nasserite Party to honor Arab figures, including Ahmed Bin Bella and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

On Israel and Syria.

A: “Our position at the level of negotiating with the Israeli enemy is known and clear. We are against such negotiations. In our political reading of what is happening, we know that Syria has occupied land. Ever since the Madrid conference, when it engaged in negotiations, nothing was reached at the level of putting an end to the Israeli obstinacy and the Golan was not restored. Now, this Zionist entity is weak, mainly due to the victories achieved by the resistance over it and especially the 2006 July war victory. This has weakened it and forced it to head toward these negotiations.

[A:] “As for the Syrian position, it was clearly stated by President Bashar al-Assad who said that the remaining period for the American administration might not be sufficient or adequate to offer prizes to those who have been blockading Syria throughout the past years. Also, I don’t think that Israeli public opinion is convinced of the necessity to relinquish the Golan in exchange for Syria’s agreeing to relinquish its principles. Therefore, I believe that what is happening is just a way to pass time while awaiting for the new American administration.

Q: “Do you have any fears about a settlement between Syria and Israel at the expense of Hezbollah and the resistance in Lebanon?

A: “I don’t think that this will happen and there are no indications pointing towards that. Hezbollah and the resistance have gone through worse, more dangerous and more stressful circumstances, the wager was much higher than a possible deal and the incentives were much greater…” [Mideastwire.com]

Well,  I’m glad to see Hizballah that active and pursuing its goals through all available means. March 14 has something to learn from Hizballah’s activism. Maybe someday we’ll hear of Hizballah exchanging Ambassadors with the Arab countries.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and former American Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman said that he was “disturbed” to see “decent official figures” welcoming Kuntar and he criticized March 14 for not standing their ground against Hizballah. I agree with the former but not entirely with the latter.

For some reason, the United States policy towards Lebanon and the Middle East in general is a flip flop between double standard and a poor understanding of the local and regional factors.

For a long time, Walid Jumblatt and other leaders counted on the US support for Lebanon. To be fair, the US did help Lebanon, but it was not ready to back it up as March 14 expected. Of course Hizballah and allies took advantage of it. In May, Hizballah invaded parts of Beirut that were not under its control already. It would be foolish for Hizballah to repeat its Beirut adventure but it did prove the world that it can get away with almost everything.

Next time Feltman opens his mouth to criticize March 14 [and they have done lots of mistakes] he should also explain why the United States failed to support the efforts of those who are sick and tired of having their country dragged into conflicts and wars because of the holy resistance.Farid Makari, deputy Speaker said it well, that the goal of March 8 is to have a Hizballah state “in parallel to, or even as competing against, the Lebanese state.” 

Playing the blame game is not helping anyone. The idea is to find solutions to these problems.

While almost 2,200 families fled their homes in Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen because of the heavy fighting, Mika [the Lebanese born British singer] had a sold out concert in Martyr’s Square on Sunday. Mika left and Tripoli is calm, so all’s well when it ends well.

Lebanon is a country of contradictions. No doubt about that.

NOW Lebanon:

Following the statements made by the Lebanese president and defense minister  on the security setback in the Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen neighborhoods of Tripoli, which left nine dead, including one child, and at least 50 others wounded, the army has expanded its deployment and set up temporary centers in adjacent neighborhoods to put a stop to breaches of security.

This is a political conflict between the Lebanese. Rather than go to the constitutional institutions, they are reverting to the use of weapons,” an army official said.

LAF presence on the streets is crucial, but that alone is not enough. Once again, Lebanon finds itself at the mercy of Syria and Hizballah.

Deputy Speaker Farid Makari on Friday told NOW Lebanon that the situation in North Lebanon [the clashes started again in Bab al Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen in spite of the ceasefire agreement] had gone “back to ground zero,” and that without a solution to Hizballah’s arms,  there would be no elections in 2009.

Information Minister Tarek Mitri sees three options for the opposition on Hizballah’s weapons clause.

The first one, Mitri said, would include “the state’s right to liberate its territories.” The second option was the adoption of Lebanese President Michel Sleiman’s inaugural speech, and the third was postponing the discussion until the national roundtable dialogue.

In an interview with Naharnet, MP Samir Franjieh said that through Tripoli clashes, Hizallah is trying to “abolish” the political concept of the Doha Accord and preempt any discussion of its weapons.

Would elections be feasible if we have an armed faction?  Weapons eliminate the principle of majority.

In the year 2005 the March 14 won majority of parliamentary seats in the elections. The result was practically eliminated by the use of force. Having armed factions (running for elections) would limit freedom of voters.

It is yesterday’s news what Hizballah understands by solution. Status quo. More than that, taking in consideration that Hizballah continues to get weapons, that its army has grown, the trainings are ongoing, and by being  politically engaged in both the Parliament and the Government, the party is to a certain extent, the de facto ruler. Hizballah learned from Hamas mistake. They are not ready, yet, [or willing,  for that matter, since they’d have to deal with all state’s problems] to take over, but the insidious, constant attack on the state institutions and on the very concept of a state is extremely troubling. Then again, after May events anything and everything is possible when it comes to the Party of God.