Lebanon

President Michel Suleiman seems to be engaged in shuttle diplomacy. Taking in consideration that the local players are heavily influenced by outside actors, this is a good initiative. I hope General Suleiman will be able to deliver but thus far he has done a good job.

Minister of State Nassib Lahoud told LBC television on Thursday night that President Michel Sleiman was preparing to propose an Arab initiative to confront terrorism and added that he discussed this issue with King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz during his visit to Saudi Arabia last week. [NOW Lebanon]

The situation in Ain el Hilwe is calmer. I doubt it will ever be stable, however, for the time being,  it may be good enough.

Hizballah believes the visits of the US officials in Lebanon are suspicious. I almost wish they were right. March 14 and / or the US to actually take bold steps? Not likely.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has issued a decree paving the way for the establishment of diplomatic ties with Lebanon and the opening of an embassy, the official SANA news agency said on Tuesday.

The decree provides for “the establishment of diplomatic relations between the Syrian Arab Republic and the Lebanese republic and the creation of a diplomatic mission at ambassador level in the Lebanese capital Beirut,” it said. [Naharnet]

Palestinian officials are compiling a register of residents in the northern refugee camp of Baddawi to crack down on Islamist militants and to prevent unrest, one of them said on Saturday.

“Rumors have spread concerning the presence of outlaws in Baddawi camp,” the official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“As a result Palestinian faction leaders unanimously decided to bolster security measures in order to prevent the outlaws from using the camp,” to settle scores, the official said. [Naharnet]

The Palestinians don’t want a second Nahr el Bared. As they all can see no one is in a hurry to rebuild the camp. If they remain without Baddawi… well… tough times ahead. The answer is to re-enter civilization and give all their weapons to the Lebanese state. If the Islamists refuse to do it, they will pay the price. Two birds with one stone. No more safe heaven in camps for the Islamists and no more violence within the Palestinian community. How about that?

Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun will make an official visit to Tehran on Sunday for meetings with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other senior officials.

…

During the visit, the first ever by Aoun to Tehran, a ceremony will be held in his honor, the daily As Safir said Friday. It said Aoun is expected to stay “several days” in Tehran. [Naharnet]

It makes sense since FPM’s main ally is Hizballah. Further more, elections are around the corner. Those who accused Aoun of being pro-Syrian [no matter what one thinks of the man or FPM that is just stupid] have now the chance to come up with an improved theory. Maybe the Iranians will give him [ I wanted to say, teach the General, but Generals don’t really appreciate being taught by others] few tips. After all, they are doing [very] well in international affairs.

When I am outside Lebanon following the political trends, I do it, thinking that X event or Y incident is going to have an impact. Truth is that nothing thus far had a meaningful impact on the system as a whole. I feel Lebanon is kind of a hopeless case…

People were assassinated and for the first time ever an important percent of the population got angry and asked for change. The Syrians were kicked out, but if I look at the political scene, nothing of substance changed. Unfortunate but true. The same people, clans, families, groups most if not all protecting the individual interest, and all countries from US to Saudi Arabia to France, Russia, Egypt and so on interfere in the internal affairs.

To what end? I don’t know, and I don’t think they know either. In a way one understands the situation reading a report in an office in Washington DC  and quite differently when you are in the country. Here too if you isolate yourself in Beirut, in the expats / Christian area, you lose the most important details. Those that give [some] sense to the events.

Long story short. The game is bigger than Lebanon, but the impact would be much reduced if they’d have a serious, nationalist political leadership.

An Nahar daily reported that Israel may withdraw from the Ghajar village by November 21. If that is true, then March 14 will have more ammunition in the upcoming campaign against Hizballah. Israel should withdraw from the Shebaa farms and the hills around, just to let Hizballah without its liberation pretenses. Let the people of the South live their life, and not die for some obscure agenda of a party, and because of state incapability [and unwillingness] to protect them.

An Nahar said UNIFIL hoped in the letter that Lebanese authorities would try to keep the situation calm in the border region and the areas near Ghajar and Abbasiyeh to prevent any decision by Israel to stop the expected pullout.

A government source in Jerusalem told Haaretz the decision was taken after the Lebanese government made written assurances that U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon would be given security and civilian control over the northern part of the village. [Naharnet]

NOW Lebanon:

 With increasing frequency since the February assassination of top Hezbollah commander Imad Mugniyah in Damascus, the Israeli Counter-Terrorism Bureau has been warning its citizens that the possibility of either above scenario being carried out by Hezbollah is high. The chatter has gotten particularly loud now that the Jewish high holidays have begun.

Should the Lebanese party strike Israelis overseas in the way Israel has warned they would, the Jewish State’s response is likely to be muted, according to Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Interdisciplinary Center’s Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel.

“Israel’s response would depend on the extent of the attack,” Spyer wrote in an e-mail message. “If it was small, it would be added to the ledger, and Israel would choose its moment to respond in a limited, tit-for-tat way. If it was massive, or on a very prestigious target, this could necessitate in Israel’s view a larger and more immediate response.”

“However, one of the lessons learned from the war of 2006 is the need for a process of very serious consultations before military action. The response could, for example, take the form of air action against Hezbollah within Lebanon. Unless Hezbollah did something massive and paradigm changing, however,” Spyer said, “it’s likely that Hezbollah’s action would be noted, and Israel would seek to settle the account at a later date.”

For the past few years there is always something happening in Lebanon. And rarely is something good.The country did not have a President, the government was weak and did not really work, the Parliament was closed. Then the clashes started inside the country. Then we have seen Doha and now we are in the post-Doha truce [reconcialition] time. Is it quiet? Not really. There is the situation in Tripoli. Briefly. The threat of the Islamists is real but we are talking about a small group. Still. True they have been helped from both inside and outside. From inside, I believe the help is much diminished after Nahr el Bared and after the attack on the Lebanese soldiers. Some realized that, hey, these guys are killing our own people, and stopped the financial support. Sure, they got the money from others willing to play their [dirty] games in the country. From outside, many take advantage of Lebanon’s lack of stability, and there is a list of suspects to be taken out of the drawer.

My point is that this group of extremists can be contained, but for that you need the army to go to the places well known to many in the country, take away the weapons [this time for real], put check points in the problematic areas, and the intelligence to keep them under surveillance. The problem is that here even when they act its a half measure. They need more approvals, more green lights from countless leaders, self called leaders, imaginary masters and so on. This type of mentality harms the  security of the country. I have no reasonable explanation [I am not interested in excuses] for it.

There are also problems in Ain el Hilwe, and Fatah and others are eager to contain the issue. As I can see no one hurries to rebuild Nahr el Bared. If they lose Ain el Hilwe too, it will get worse, for Palestinians and Lebanese alike.

What happens in Ain el Hilwe also has an impact on the security of the country. After Nahr el Bared, the Lebanese army should get into the camps and disarm the armed groups from left, right and center, in accord to the UNSCR Resolutions. No one attacks the Palestinians in Lebanon, and their excuses with Sabra and Shatila are long gone. These are another times, and to be frank they are guests in Lebanon. They don’t get to impose their own ideas of security, of a state etc, if they have any in respect to Lebanon. If you take the Palestinian arms, then the other Lebanese groups will lose yet another excuse to keep their weaponry. And its not only Hizballah. Plus, the Palestinians are used by everyone. For the sake of all, help them socially, but they have no business in being armed. To do what exactly?

In camps they fight for streets. X is Fatah street and Y is for Jund al Sham and O is for Hamas and so on. This is gang like thinking.

The policy is to push the dirt under the carpet. That can only prolong the instability, and my guess is that what happened in Tripoli will not stay in Tripoli for long, if the state does not take drastic and immediate action.

Hours before the parliament convened to vote on the electoral law on Monday, an explosion occurred in al-Bahsas in Tripoli. Reports suggest the explosion targeted a military bus carrying at least 20 soldiers, leaving at least six dead and 17 injured.

The Voice of Lebanon radio station reported that a Renault 18 sedan, which was positioned near the bus, blew up. The bus’ license plate number was 501516.

ANB reports that the owner of the Renault has been arrested, and the investigation is ongoing.

Tripoli has been a hotbed of strife since the May incidents, as there were ongoing battles between the Sunni Bab al-Tabbaneh neighborhood and Alawi parties in Jabal Mohsen.

The army has also been targeted in the northern city following its 15-week battle with Fatah al-Islam militants in the northern Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared in the summer of 2007. Fatah al-Islam was badly beaten during the fighting, but it did not disband, and its members are thought to be behind the August 13 explosion in Tripoli near a bus filled with soldiers that left 14 people dead, nine of whom soldiers, and scores injured.

You can read more here and here.

Excellent reading about Hizballah’s controlled suburbs. As it looks, Hizballah’s Pentagon, as some called dahyeh was not as controlled as many thought. Don’t get me wrong, Hizballah is strong, but far from being invincible. NOW Lebanon:

The Internal Security Forces (ISF) recently implemented what it has called a “security plan” in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut in Dahiyeh, where the Party of God has been forced to remove part of its much-coveted security cover due to a sharp rise in drugs, prostitution and street crime, much of which has been blamed on the economic fallout from the civil unrest in early May, when Hezbollah took over large parts of Beirut. Hezbollah’s actions at the time may have been bundled up in a very neat and ruthless political equation, but it was an equation that failed to calculate the social and economic consequences it brought upon many within the Shia community.

According to ISF sources, within hours of the police moving in, 106 people with outstanding warrants had been arrested. Most were later released after paying their fines, and no clashes or friction between the police and residents was reported.

Meanwhile, Minister of Interior Ziad Baroud announced a halt to all illegal construction work in the area, a move that has reportedly been welcomed by both Hezbollah and the ordinary citizens of Dahiyeh, a sprawling and unregulated concrete jungle that is also home to Hezbollah’s main party headquarters and which was heavily bombed during the 2006 July War. It was also, until this recent development, a no-go zone for the ISF and the Lebanese army. Any attempts to enforce the law often resulted in bloody, and sometimes fatal, clashes between Hezbollah’s security and Lebanese police. The message was clear: Hezbollah was a mini-state, and the Dahiyeh was its capital.

…

Hezbollah has neither a judiciary nor a police force. It can claim to be able to take on the might of the Israeli army or even take control of Lebanon in the blink of an eye, but it cannot control crime, nor can it, apparently, stop social disintegration within in its own community, despite providing social services and broadcasting moral probity through its media; hence the decision by Hezbollah to place a call to the ISF.

In other news, President Suleiman is in US, and Speaker Berri and Saad Hariri agreed to remove banners and posters from Beirut “to start with.”