“If the political and security situation is stable then we expect a real growth of 4 percent and 4 percent inflation. We also expect to have surpluses in the balance of payments,” said Riad Salameh, the Lebanese Central Bank Governor.

Salameh did a great job not dragging Lebanon into the global crisis downs. Lebanon was among the very few countries where the impact was minimal.

However, he does need the political elite on board and thus far neither March 14 nor March 8 came up with policy projects to counter the crisis. Today’s Daily Star editorial talks about this issue.

“Lebanon cannot expect to retain the immunity it has thus far enjoyed against the effects of the accelerating global economic crisis, and it is a worthwhile exercise for policy-makers to at least privately start considering some of the worst-case scenarios. One of these is the potential for economic turmoil to stoke instability. As the impact of the financial crisis spreads, unemployment rates are expected to continue rising in Europe, the United States and the Gulf, regions where hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have relocated for work. Some economists reckon that as many as 50,000 or even 100,000 of our citizens could soon find themselves without a job and make their way back home. Given that many of these Lebanese are either the sole or major breadwinners in their families, the human implications of their unemployment could have dire consequences here in Lebanon.”