Lebanon

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanese leaders are close to a deal on the formation of a national unity government as stipulated in an agreement that ended the country’s political crisis, political sources said on Saturday.

They said the new government, in which Hezbollah and its allies would have a blocking minority, could be announced as early as Saturday.

Lebanon’s U.S.-backed majority coalition and the opposition, led by the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah, signed a Qatari-brokered deal in Doha on May 21 that pulled the country back from the brink of a new civil war.

President Michel Suleiman was elected four days later in line with the deal, but squabbling over cabinet portfolios has held up the formation of a government.

The sources from both sides said the breakthrough in the government came after a series of contacts by Qatari Prime Minister Shiekh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani with rival leaders.

The new government, led by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, would have two Hezbollah ministers in addition to nine ministers from its Shi’ite Muslim, Druze and Christian allies.

The ruling coalition would have 16 ministers while the remaining three ministers in the 30-member cabinet would be picked by the president, the sources said. Personalities close to Suleiman would be assigned the key defense and interior portfolios.

Leaders were holding intense contacts to finalize the cabinet list. Once the names of the ministers are finalized, Siniora would meet Suleiman and announce his line up.

“Final touches are being put on the list of names. It could be finished today or it might take a little bit longer,” one source said.

The main task of the cabinet would be to ease political and sectarian tensions that had led to bouts of deadly violence, adopt an election law already agreed in Doha, and supervise next year’s parliamentary election.

After the formation of the government, Suleiman is expected to call rival leaders for round table talks to discuss various divisive issues. On top of the agenda would be the fate of Hezbollah’s weapons.

Hezbollah maintains a formidable guerrilla army that had survived a war with Israel in 2006.

Its domestic detractors say there are no more justifications for the group to keep its arms after Israel pulled out of Lebanon while Hezbollah and its allies argue that it needs its arsenal to defend Lebanon against “Israeli threats”.

Hezbollah and Israel are expected to exchange prisoners later this month.

General Michel Aoun launched today the National Christian Gathering. As I said before the idea is not bad, just that it pertains to a different time. President Suleiman did something similar and the impression is that the two men are in a contest. It is interesting to investigate, if Suleiman is in contest with Aoun or Aoun with Suleiman. I bet on the latter. More interesting details at Blacksmiths of Lebanon.

Now that the problem of Kuntar has been solved, what about the prisoners from the Syrian jails? I am actually looking forward to hear Sheikh Nasrallah asking their immediate release. After all, Syria is a sisterly/brotherly country. On a more serious note, this is a problem that has to be addressed at a state level, and March 14 group would better hurry up and do something about it. Dory Chamoun already asked what prevents Syrian allies in the country to ask Assad’s regime to release the prisoners? I wonder…
Dr Geagea expects the formation of a cabinet in 24 hours. The rumour is that Aoun and March 14 found a common ground. We shall see. I’d not be surprised to see the 24 hours transformed in 24 days. Hopefully I am wrong.

Top priorities for the immediate future:

• working government and parliament [judicial reform, prisoners problem, electoral law etc]
• country’s security [militias weapons]
• International Tribunal

In a recent speech Sheikh Nasrallah dedicated the swap with Israel to Lebanon. Many things can be said about Hizballah, but they surely know how to spin almost everything in their favor.

Hizballah claims that Israel is frail. Perhaps. However, in spite of its more recent victories, real or imaginated Hizballah is not the way it used to be, say, in mid 90s early 2000. Hizballah started as a militia, and it went on to be active on the socio-political stage. It did very well, and many hoped that in time, Hizbalah will abandon its military wing. Wishful thinking. In 2000 they had their biggest victory [again debatable, but technically Hizballah could claim it won] and they did not know how to use the moment to withdraw from the military career, in full glory. Or maybe they knew and simply ignored it. A while ago when they took the Sunni streets of Beirut Hizballah proved yet again that is a powerful militia full stop. Now that the negotiations with Israel ended, Hizballah tries to score some points politically too. The party needs reconcialition as much as the others need it. That won’t be easy. That is why Sheikh Nasrallah wants to use the return of the prisoners as a unity moment. I can understand the political considerations behind it, but from a human point of view celebrating Samir Kuntar can only be one of the most shameful moments ever. If you don’t know who Kuntar is and what his “glorious” actions were, just google him.

Meanwhile the negotiations over the new government continue, and President Suleiman thanked Qatar for giving him a helicopter. Question: did the Lebanese search it for bugs?

Hizballah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged Wednesday his group had brokered a prisoner swap with the Israeli government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

The deal involves the remains of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.  Hizballah fighters abducted the Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid in July 2006, an event that led to the July War between the military wing of Lebanese Hizballah and the Israeli military.

Nasrallah Wednesday said the speculation that the two Israeli soldiers were dead, however, was “not based on anything tangible.”

The Lebanese prisoners involved in the exchange are all still living.  The most controversial of them is Samir Kantar who is serving consecutive life terms for killing an Israeli policemen, a man and  his 4-year-old daughter in a 1979 northern Israeli attack.

It is alleged Kantar crushed the girls skull, sparking condemnation the deal marked a new low for Israeli prisoner negotiations.

Nasrallah said he would update Israeli officials on information regarding Israeli air force officer Ron Arad.  Shiite rebels captured Arad in 1986 when his plane was shot down over Lebanese territory. It is uncertain if Arad is alive or dead, however.

Meanwhile, the British Home Office Wednesday took measures to ban the military wing of the Shiite group over claims it had trained fighters in southern Iraq.  Iraqi lawmakers blame Hizballah for stoking sectarian violence in the region and Wednesday, a spokesmen for radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr suggested he would form an elite fighting force comprised of these specially-trained militants.

The British ban seemingly pertains only to the military wing of Hizballah and does not concern the political branches of the group.

Mohammed Ali Jafari, commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps said that Iran will block “oil shipments through the strategic Hormuz Straits if attacked and pledged that Hizbullah could also respond by rocketing Israel.” Hizballah fighting for Iran?! Didn’t they claim they are a Lebanese Resistance movement? Oh well. I recommend you read Mehdi Khalaji article on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Arab League Secretary, General Amr Moussa declared to Asharq al-Awsat daily, that Lebanon is nearing the red lines.

“Mines are being planted in Lebanon …in extremely dangerous circumstances.” “In deed, we are nearing the red lines” in Lebanon, Moussa warned.

When Hizballah and AMAL finally agreed to the solution proposed by Fuad Sinioara, the Free Patriotic Movement changed its mind.

Free Patriotic Movement official Gibran Bassil said the group is “withdrawing the concession it recently made and in which we accepted two basic portfolios and the seat of deputy premier.” “We want a sovereign portfolio,” Bassil told An Nahar.

The publication quoted FPM sources as saying the group wants the finance portfolio in addition to the ministries of public works and social affairs as well as the seat of deputy premier.

After countless negotiations a solution might appear to the deadlock. Sources say Hizballah may agree with Elias Murr taking the Defense Ministry. The catch is that Hizballah has to give the green light to the men that will take control of Lebanon’s security services, army and intelligence. Most likely, Hizballah already assessed through its own intelligence service, which Generals have the capacity to empathize with it, and erased from the list those who are too Western for the party’s taste. Both Hizballah and AMAL stressed that in spite of the separate talks and negotiations, the new government won’t be formed, if Michel Aoun, their ally, is not satisfied with Siniora’s proposals.

I highly recommend you read in full the following excellent editorial of Michael Young.

A third reason why writing Aoun off could be premature is that the March 14 coalition, particularly in the past week, has only confirmed how devoid it is of stirring ideas. If many Christians are far less enthusiastic than they were about Aoun, they have not transferred their enthusiasm to the majority. And yet there are things the March 14 leadership can and must do to behave like a majority and regain the initiative nationally.

What should March 14 group do.

For starters, the government and March 14 need to show more imagination when dealing with the social and economic crisis - the main concern today of all Lebanese. What has the government done to make this a priority? What has the majority done? There is no lack of money among states supporting March 14, no lack of interest from the Lebanese diaspora, to fund projects that might increase employment and reinforce the impression that the parliamentary majority, like Rafik Hariri once, stands for economic prosperity. The government may have limited constitutional powers today, but nothing prevents it from proposing practical measures alleviating the socioeconomic burden on the Lebanese that a new government could take up. In its rhetoric, March 14 almost never constructively tackles the population’s declining purchasing power.

Unless March 14 moves on, Lebanon moves back.

And most importantly, in defending a state project March 14, particularly the Future Movement, needs to show that it has a tight rein on what is today a humiliated and confused Sunni community. Hariri cannot defend the project of a stronger state while allowing the Sunnis outside Beirut to slip further into a war mentality. That Hizbullah’s recklessness is to blame for this goes without saying. But national suicide, to borrow from Michel Sleiman, will spare no one. And if Lebanon goes down that path, Syria will very likely again be tasked with imposing order on the country, ending the fragile freedom we won three short years ago.

Meanwhile, street clashes continue in Tripoli.

The news coming from Lebanon are anything but good. Suspicion, lack of trust and narrow agendas prevent progress on the ground.

At the meeting, President Suleiman had with the spiritual leaders, he warned that “differences have reached the level of committing suicide.”

Former Premier, Omar Karami talks of a temporary truce “because historical grudges still exist.”

The Russian Ministry denounced the deterioration of the situation in Lebanon and we called on all parties “that have an impact on the warring forces” to help stop the armed clashes and restore stability and order.

Michel Aoun considers Premier Fuad Siniora a “war project,” because the latter did not form the government. How could he, when Aoun & allies, always find something new to ask or to vote against? Siniora may not be the best Prime Minister ever, but he is doing his best to keep the country out of harms way.

MP Hussein Hajj Hassan of Hizballah accused Siniora of following outside orders, to sabotage the al mighty resistance. How ludicrous is that?! When 1) Hizballah’s ideology is of Khomeinist nature 2) they sabotage the state of law through any posisble means [ let’s not forget, the private army&secret service, parallel telecommunication lines, total control of the South, Beirut’s suburbs and Beqaa] 3) the party finds new excuses to keep the arms, Hizballah blames the others for conspiring against its interests. Please!!

Unfortunately, this falls in line with the role played by a suspicious group that abuses and incites [parties] against the Resistance… in the service of America and Israel.

The Sunnis, through Mufti Jouzou accused Hizballah of imposing its “aggressive”policy on Lebanon, as a whole.

To what end? There are not many available alternatives, after all. Either the political leaders find a way to move forward or the situation gets worse.

UNRWA estimated the costs to rebuild Nahr el Bared, and 15 villages around it, at 445 million US dollars. Almost half of this amount will be put forward by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. The rest will be covered by Western and European countries.

The Palestinians need a place to stay, and from a human rights perspective they have a meager existence in Lebanon’s overcrowded, dirty camps.

On one hand, a solution had to be found for the refugees. On the other hand, why rebuild from scratch, if there is no intention whatsoever, to resettle the Palestinians in Lebanon? Which, by the way, would be one of the worst ideas the Western community, in complicity with the Arab one, could come up with. Some never learn from [recent] past mistakes.
Hanibaal has more on the subject.

So one wonders why are the Europeans so eager to keep those foreign refugees in Lebanon? The reasons are, in fact, beyond humanitarian. They have to do with helping Israel dump the refugee problem onto Lebanon. The Palestinian refugees belong to Israel-Palestine and that is where they should be re-settled, not in Lebanon. Why doesn’t the EU, for instance, use its influence and its 28 million Euros to help the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank re-settle these refugees back in THEIR OWN COUNTRY of Palestine??? Am I missing something? Isn’t the point of refugee assistance first and foremost to help the refugees go back to their country?

The international community should understand that the Palestinian refugees are temporary guests in Lebanon. They will never be accepted as full fledged citizens by the Lebanese. The goal should be their return to Palestine, not their settlement in Lebanon. There are dozens of UN resolutions that call for their return to their country of Palestine, and ongoing peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are intended to resolve outstanding issues such as the refugees.

Lebanese troops on Monday moved into north Lebanon where two days of fierce sectarian battles killed are said to have killed 10 people, threatening to derail an accord to end the country’s political crisis.

The army threatened to use force to end the fighting that erupted on Sunday in the densely populated Bab al-Tebbaneh and Jabal Mohsen districts of the port of Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city after the capital Beirut.

 

At least eight people were killed and 45 wounded as fighters traded heavy machine-gun fire, mortar rounds androcket-propelled grenades, prompting residents to flee or take to underground shelters.

Without a government in place, with a President, that is not let to act as a [real] mediator, and with Sheikh Qassem explaining that Hizballh is not only a resistance, but “a vision and a methodology to follow, ” the situation does not look too good.

Who’s fighting who and why?

According to a resident of Qobbeh, Khaled Tleiji, who was forced to leave his home with his family, the Sunni fighters are not members of the Future Movement but are rather a mix of Salafi fighters or Sunni fighters seeking “revenge.” “People are buying weapons to use during the clashes from the money of their own pockets,” he said, implying that external parties are not necessarily supplying weapons to fighters. The tension, Tleiji said, between the Alawi of Jabal Mohsen and the Sunni of Bab al-Tabbaneh has been ongoing since Syria’s 29 year occupation of Lebanon, which ended in 2005. Tleiji added that up to 70 Sunni homes in Bab al-Tabbaneh had been burned and their residents forced into exile.

A high-ranking security source told NOW Lebanon that the army would not be able to make substantial progress on the ground action until a “decision on the political level is made.”

Abu Kais said it better:

In short, it’s bad. It’s always been an existential battle for Hizbullah, and as long as they’re around in this current form, the country has no chance of ever recovering. In the meantime, sedatives, in the form of beach going and barhopping seem to do the trick for a population tired of itself.

A conference of Arab businessmen that opened in Beirut yesterday warned of the serious consequences of the rising unemployment rate in the Arab world, which has reached 14%.

The conference, organized by the Arab Chambers of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture, is being attended by 500 Arab and foreign participants from 21 countries. The chair of the conference, who is president of the Chambers of Commerce, Adnan al-Qassar, said in his opening statement that unemployment in the Arab world has become a chronic phenomenon despite the tremendous increase in oil revenues.

I don’t know if Hamas, PLO, Hizballah, Mahdi, Badr etc representatives were invited to attend the event, but they should have been present. If you give people arms, train them to make explosives, and encourage them to blow themselves up does not mean you take care of your own.

 The Arab League also drew attention to the fact that while the Arab world has vast areas of arable land, it still imports 50% of its grains and two-thirds of its food products at a cost of $30 billion annually.

These are the real problems that need to be addressed. Politicians invent the rest [ killing the infidels, Zionists, imperialists etc] and use human rights issues, religious sentiment and freedom ideals to cover their dirty work.